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Global Warming: The Chain of Proof

Global warming activists are trying to sell the idea that the debate is over.  CO2 that humans are producing is warming the earth and we must cut our carbon use quickly and dramatically to save the earth.  Tick.   

I have not made my mind up completely, but as I look harder at the issue, it looks more and more like a major overreaction.  As I see it, the global warming crowd has a long list of conditions that they have to prove in succession before it is necessary to buy into their conservation rhetoric.

1. They have to prove that the earth is actually warming right now.  From what I have read, this has fairly solid evidence behind it.

2.  Humans are causing the warming.  Obviously this is the major point of debate.  I tend to believe that most of the warming is due to factors outside of our control.  More heat from the sun, fluctuations in the level of cosmic rays providing cloud cover, and general cyclic variations in climate.

3.  Global warming will be significant and bad.  If the temperature is only going to rise by a few degrees celsius, I will be skeptical that that will cause harm.  Another thing that I never hear discussed is nature’s ability to bring extremes back to equilibrium.  If CO2 rises dramatically, the number of carbon-fixing plants and algae should increase also, driving CO2 back to equilibrium.  I haven’t seen any scientific discussion of this idea, though, so I don’t know its validity.
I could also easily see global warming being good.  Maybe some of those liberals up north wouldn’t be so cold all the time, so they would be less cranky and start voting conservative.  Just an idea.  But, my serious point is that global warming activists have to prove to me that global warming will actually be bad.

4.  Environmentalists must prove that adapting to global warming will be more costly than preventing it.  For example, global warming people tell me that I should combat global warming because it will flood NY.  Well I say, forget that, let’s build a dyke.  The dutch do it.  Environmentalists say that global warming will cause some areas to become deserts.  I say, move to some of the new farmland up north created by global warming. 
Humans have a remarkable ability to adapt.  The way the earth is right now is not necessarily the “right” way it should be.

5.  Conservationists have to prove to me that wrecking our economy with restrictions and carbon caps is the only way to stop global warming.  I would much rather reduce carbon emissions with technological innovation that self-depravation.  Instead of cutting electricity usage, let’s build nuclear plants.  Instead of riding a bike, why don’t we build cars that run on hydrogen, which was produced with power from the nuclear power plants we already built.  And let’s invent something for cows to wear that catches all that methane that they ummm...release.  OK,that last one was a joke.  The technological route is especially attractive if there is still 10-30 years to reduce our carbon emissions.

So, as you can see.  That is a long list to prove.  I am open to persuasion, but right now the global warming crowd is not cutting it.  Of course, I would like to see us use less oil so the price drops and we aren’t funding Hugo Chavez, Iran, and the rest of the middle eastern thugs.  But, that is a post for another day.

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Developments in Iraq

    Events are developing rapidly over in Iraq as the surge begins to develop.  Bill Roggio has it all covered on his blog.   Be sure to visit it.  

    Right now, I am still waiting to see if the short term trends can stand up to time, but the surge has met with striking initial success.  Troops are moving into all areas of Baghdad (even Sadr city), the Iraqi forces are improving and mastering the operations of checkpoints and patrol, the Iraqi populace is welcoming the surge, Sadr fled to Iran, and we are conducting offensives in the areas surrounding Baghdad.  Statistically, the number of bombings, death squad activity, deaths and violence are all down sharply.  Hopefully, as more and more troops move into Baghdad (most have not arrived yet), the momentum will build instead of falling apart.
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Latest Guarddawg Issue Posted

 I have my latest article in the Guarddawg available.  It defend's the TV show, "24," from the liberal accusation that it is right-wing propaganda.  Read it here.  We are working hard to fight liberalism on the UGA campus, so if you like what you see, we would appreciate your support. 
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Amillia Taylor: 10 Ounce Indictment of Abortion

I saw the news today that the youngest premature baby to ever survive will be going home soon.  Amillia Taylor was born weighing 10 ounces, having spent less than 22 weeks in the womb. 


In case you didn't notice, that is a pen sitting next to this tiny little miracle of life.  

    Now for what should make your stomach turn, if you have any conscience left.  Look at little baby in the picture.  If that little baby was surrounded by a womb, if that baby had an umbilical cord attached to it instead of an oxygen tube, it would be legal to kill it.  That 22 week old baby would be around a month away from the end of the second trimester if she had not been born yet--fair game for an abortionist's scapel. 

     Now it gets even worse, Amillia was born back on October 24.  If she had not been born prematurely, she would still be in the womb now, by my calculations around the 38th week.  Here is the picture of Amillia right now. 

Partial birth abotion would still be able to take her life.  An abortionist could ram scissors into her skull and suction out her brains.  Thankfully, it appears that the Supreme Court will uphold the ban on this gruesome procedure that is nothing more than infanticide.  
    You can accuse me of simply pandering to emotions, but I am not.  I am appealing to your morality.  I am appealing to the sense of justice and compassion in every human being.  I am saying that a fetus is a person.  Just look at the pictures of Amillia, look at ultrasounds, listen to a baby's heart beat, feel a baby kick in the womb, look at a reading of a unborn babies brain waves, and then try tell me than an unborn baby is not a person.  Don't tell me that killing a beautiful innocent baby like this is a choice. 
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Tax Cuts for the Rich

Democrats routinely decry tax cuts for the rich.  As usual their actions are not motivated by sound economics or fact.  This is because it turns out that tax cuts for the rich make them pay even more taxes.

Comparing the impact of the Coolidge, Kennedy and Reagan tax cuts:

  • The 1920s Coolidge tax cuts caused the percentage of income tax revenues paid by those with incomes over $50,000 to rise from 44.2 percent of the total in 1921 to 78.4 percent in 1928.
  • The 1960s tax cuts caused the percentage of income tax revenues paid by those with incomes over $50,000 to rise from 11.6 percent of the total in 1963 to 15.1 percent in 1928.
  • The 1980s Reagan tax cuts caused the percentage of income tax revenues paid by the top 10 percent of earners to rise from 48 percent of the total in 1981 to 57.2 percent in 1988.

Source: Gene W. Heck, "Building Prosperity: Why Ronald Reagan and the Founding Fathers were Right on the Economy," Rowman and Littlefield, 2007.


A similar increase in revenues from the rich has happened under President Bush's tax cuts.  The reason is simple.  Reward rich people for their economic efforts and they will work harder.  This means they pay more in taxes, but get to keep more money also.  Everyone wins.  The rich people get more money, their economic activity creates jobs for people down the economic ladder, and the government gets more in tax money.

True to form though, the Democrats just don't get it.  If they have their way they will increase the income cap for payroll taxes, effectively raising taxes on the rich, they will allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, and if they have their way they would just raise taxes outright.  Just think about what Nancy Pelosi did first...she removed the 2/3 majority rule in the House to raise taxes.  And the sad irony in it all will be that in their efforts to soak the rich, the rich will end up paying less in taxes. 
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Analyzing the "Big Three"

The race for the Republican nomination has been whittled down to three big time candidate according to some commentators.  None of the three has perfect conservative credentials, but each has major electoral strengths and positions that appeal to Republicans. 
 
Of the "big three" I can say for sure, McCain is not the one.  Everytime the Republican party really needs him (Judges, Immigration) he is on the wrong side fraternizing with people like Kennedy and Feingold.

If Rudy ends up with the nomination, I will gladly support him.  He has an inspiring record on economic issues.  He will not do anything to restrict guns, will appoint originalist judges, and will probably agree to refrain from pushing his liberal issues in public.  He was also probably forced to sound more liberal than he really is to win in the poisonous environment of New York.  Once he is out in the wholesome air of red america, his libertarian conservative core should start shining brighter.

Romney has gotten a lot of flak for "flip-flopping," but I think people are being too harsh.  He has been perfectly consistent of gays.  He opposes discrimination and hatred towards them, but doesn't think they should be able to marry.  That is the position of most Republicans. 

  He has offered a reasonable explanation of his change on abortion and backed it up with an unpopular veto of stem cell funding.  His wife suffers from a disease that embryonic stem cell proponents say could be cured.  If he was flip flopping solely for political gain he would not oppose stem cell research.  It is supported by a majority of Americans and even people like Frist support it.  
 
 Besides, he is a Mormon.  Which is more likely, he was pro-life Mormon all along but hid it in order to have a snowballs chance in heck of winning in Massachuessets.  In this case, his flip flop should not be worrisome.  He is one of us...a spy forced to take disguise in enemy territory.  Or that he actually was pro-choice all along and then flipped to a politically unpopular position for political gain.  I know that some people are worried, but Mitt has gotten the short end of the stick on his alleged "flip flop."

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An Alternate History of the Last Congress

 A lot of people have been discussing what went wrong in the '06 elections and what the Republicans need to do to get back on track.  Clearly the last Congress was a huge disappointment and led directly to the severity of the Republican loss.  Here is an alternate history of the last Congress and its effect on the '06 election.
 
    Fresh off his strong showing in the 2004 elections, President Bush vowed to use the political capital he had earned to get things done.  One enthusiatic Republican staffer exclaimed, "We have more control over the legislative process than we have had in decades.  We are going to get big things done."  Another observer mused, "The majority party has historically lost seats in the 6th year of a President's service.  We need to accomplish our agenda while we still have a functional majority."

   At the start of the legislative session President Bush gave a short speech.  In it he quoted Ronald Reagan on government and pledged to limit the growth of government in the next few years.  He renewed his call for Social Security reform.  

    As the session began, Republicans quickly made all of President Bush's tax cuts permanent.  One Senator commented, "Our economic growth under these tax cuts has been extraordinary.  We will not allow the tax burden to rise on hard working taxpayers."

    Work then began on the difficult task of reforming Social Security.  President Bush made it clear that he was open to any options for reforming the system, but the benefits of older retirees would not be affected and he refused to raise taxes.  Democrats cried bloody murder.  The Republican caucus held a joint conference of Senators and Representatives and discussed various proposals for reform.  With the prodding of President Bush, they agreed to rally around personal accounts and tying benefit growth to inflation instead of wages.  

    With this agreed upon Senator Frist introduced a bill with these two proposals and began negotiatons with 5 centrist Democrats on what would the rest of the bill would look like.  Minority Leader Reid made it clear that he would oppose any plan with personal accounts and refused to come to the table.  Frist obliged him and cut off the entire Democrat delegation except for the 5 centrist Democrats.  They hashed out a bill that watered down some Republican wishes, but had the support of 60 senators.  After decrying the Democratic obstruction on the bill for weeks, President Bush  took a break from his cross country promotional tour to give a prime time address.  He outlined the coming failure of Social Security in clear terms, explained the safety and superiority of personal accounts, and once again explained that the current bill would not harm retirees.  Republicans knew that the bill was not extremely popular, but RSC Chairman Pence encouraged everyone to do the right thing regardless of the consequences.  "We may only have one shot at this thing."  The bill finally passed and President Bush signed it into law.

    As work began on the budget, earmarking was clearly a problem.  Senator Colburn made an appeal to the White House for help.  Senator McCain backed him up and a few days later President Bush announced that he would veto ANY bill that included more than 5 billion in pork or increased non-military discretionary spending by more than 3%.  With the cover of Bush's veto threat, budget hawks prevailed and killed most of the pork in the bill including a strange idea to build an expensive bridge to a remote area with a few hundred people.  Senator Ted Stevens retired in fury and the Republican Governor appointed a conservative replacement.

    Around this time Hurrican Katrina hit New Orleans.  The next day Bush immediately flew down and personally directed the cleanup operation from a command and control center nearby New Orleans.  When reports of the situation at the Superdome unfolded he took a military transport to the dome to personally view the situation and encourage the survivors.  The next day he addressed the nation from one of the few areas above water with words of encouragement and resolve.

   Meanwhile, Democrat filibusters of judicial nominees were frustrating the will of the majority and plaguing courts with vacancies.  Senator Frist threatened the Nuclear Option.  As the showdown approached, word reached Senator Frist that McCain was attempting to subvert his authority.  He confronted Sen. Graham and Sen. Dewine and they eventually stuck with him.  The vote passed narrowly and the strange historical abherration of judicial filibusters was ended a few years after it began.  The Senate made Circut and Distric court nominees a priority and voted on most within a short time of their nomination.  John Roberts and Sam Alito were Bush's first two picks for the Supreme Court.  He knew confirmation would be easy. 

    With Social Security Reform under their belt, the energized Republican caucus moved on to tax reform.  Democrats screamed bloody murder.  Although the Fairtax and the Flat Tax had vocal advocates.  Republicans could not agree with either.  Eventually a plan to repass the 1986 Reagan tax simplification gained approval as a compromise.  After adding language that made the code more difficult to monkey with, the bill passed and Bush happily signed it.

    As the Abramoff scandal materialized Republicans came under the charge of corruption.  They responded by sharp earmark reforms and lobbying reductions.  A thorough internal investigation was commissioned by Republicans and they moved quickly to bring openness to the budgeting process.  

    Finally, work on immigration reform was taken up.  The House and the Senate were strongly opposed.  Eventually a compromise was worked out.  Everyone wanted the border secured so they passed a bill securing the border and beefing up enforcement of current immigration laws.  After the border was certified to be secure, a true guest worker program would be gradually enstated.  Foreign workers would apply in their home countries, come to work for a year or two, and then go home--no path to citizenship.  Employers that hired illegals would be severely punished, landlords that rented for illegals would be punished.  Easy and quick methods of varifiying legal status of a person were enstated.  Without work or housing, the millions of current illegals had no choice but to go home where they applied for the guest worker program.  Legal immigration was increased and streamlined with an emphasis on high-skilled labor.  Democrats opposed the compromise tooth and nail and Republicans united to condemn them.  They painted the Democrats as the party of open borders and amnesty.  After an outpouring of public anger, Democrats relented and the compromise passed.  Bush grudgingly signed it.

    By now the '06 campaign season was rolling around.  Republicans stuck to their message.  The economy was doing great.  Republicans were the party of reform, Democrats were obstructionists.  Democrats were for open borders and amnesty, Republicans fought illegal immigration.  After discretionary spending only grew 2% for the last two years and progress had been made at scaling back entitlement spending, Republicans were not stinging from the stigma of big spending.  Bush had also vetoed several pork laden bills.  Campaiging on limited government and their strong record Republicans managed to fight to a draw.  Democrats picked up several House seats directly affected by corrupt individuals and picked up a couple of Senate seats.  Primary challengers defeated several big spending Republicans.  Senator Frist, the darling of the Republican Right, looked like a lock for the '08 presidential nomination.  After selecting Rudy Giuliani, who moved right on social issues during the primary campaign, as his VP.  Republicans held the White House in '08.

   Obviously, many of these accomplishments would have been difficult to achieve.  But, if Republicans were unified around a conservative agenda, they could have been achieved.  But, instead of governing around a bold, reform minded agenda, Republicans tried to simply hang on to their power to waste our money on pet projects.  They deserved their fate.  Now they don't get to work for reform or spend our money.  It is just a shame that the people of America now have to suffer under Democrat socialism.  The lesson of the last Congress should be clear.  When you get a once in a lifetime opportunity, big things are expected.  Don't screw it up.  Things could be very different right now if Republicans hadn't wasted '04-'06.
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PS3 and the Free Market

My brothers and I camped out to get a Playstation 3 video game console last night.  We were lucky enough to win a raffle that got us our place in line and we scored one of the most coveted items this Christmas season.  Needless to say it was pretty exciting.  We had been planning on getting some PS3's for almost a year in order to sell them on Ebay during the inevitable launch shortage.  
   Right now there are about 15-20 people who want a PS3 for every available console.  The XBOX 360 encountered the same initial shortage when it launched.  The reason I bring this up is because it perfectly illustrates a fundamental economic truth--supply and demand.  The supply of PS3 is very low, around 400,000.  The demand is very high, around 20 million people own PS2s.  Therefore the price is guaranteed to be high.  
   Ebay is where the free market comes in.  For a number of reasons, Sony is selling their PS3's for well below their fair market value right now.  Xbox did the exact same thing.  But, the markets responded to this unatural pricing though Ebay.  The majority of people in line to buy PS3's in America are all planning on selling them on Ebay.  And now on ebay, PS3s are selling at $3000 to $7500.  The market has worked its magic.  Despite the initial pricing, the PS3 shot up to its real value.  Instead of shortage, anyone who really wants a PS3 can get one--they just have to have lots of money.  And best of all, it drives liberals crazy because they think that people on Ebay are PRICE GOUGING.  
   Well, they are not.  The price they are selling the PS3 for includes labor cost from them sitting in the cold in your place in order to get  a console, their profit as middle men, and the true value of a scarce commodity.  It is the free market at its beautiful best and I love it.  
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John Paul Stevens' Retirement Soon?

Human events reports that credible insiders say that John Paul Stevens is ill and may retire soon.  He is pushing 90 so this is not surprising.  With this bit of news it is imperative that Michael Steele, Conrad Burns, Jim Talent, and Tom Kean win.  We have to hold a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.  The Supreme Court may hang in the balance.

Let me remind you of a bit of history.  In 1986, Republicans lost the Senate because of the 6 year itch.  Soon afterwards, Robert Bork, a brilliant, distiguished, and accomplished judge, was shamefully slandered, lied about, and defeated by a Democratic majority and a few Republican traitors (eg Arlen Specter).  Moderate Anthony Kennedy was nominated in his place.  We cannot let this happen again. 

Update:  Well this obviously didn't end up developing.  I don't have any more news on Steven's retirement, but the guy is extremely old.  I would not be surprised in the least if he decides that he wants his successor to be confirmed by an evenly divided Senate.  If he does retire before 2008, look for his replacement battle to be WWIII.

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Get Out There and Vote

I wanted to encourage everyone again to go out and vote.  If you are thinking of staying home to teach the Republicans a lesson, you are making one critical assumption that is not necessarily true.  

    You are assuming that Republicans will be able to win the House back.  While that is a distinct possibility with a strong presidential candidate in '08, don't count on it.  The advantages of incumbency are numerous and powerful.  Dislodging a Democratic Majority from the House of Representatives will be extremely difficult. Just ask the Democrats.  They taught their people a lesson in 1994.  They did not win Congress back in 1996.  Republicans taught Bush Sr. a lesson in 1992 and we got Bill Clinton for 8 years.  So, if you stay home tomorrow, you will have only yourself to blame 6, 8, or 10 years from now if a Democratic majority has held on to the House, stifling any progress on the conservative agenda.   
 
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Some Encouraging Developments

I ran across several notable developments as I was browsing today. 

Most notable was what Boehner said about a Republican House of Representatives.  He said that the Republicans had lost the way of '94, and he guaranteed that if the GOP retain control of Congress, they move back to the spirit of 1994.  Let me say this again.  Republicans got the message.  They were scared into their senses by the vocal and vehement displeasure that has been expressed about their loss of principles.  Causing their defeat at the polls is not necessary.  If you don't believe me, why was conservative leadership elected in the House, why did the Secure Fence act pass instead of amnesty, why have they taken the first steps to back towards fiscal sanity?  It's because they know they screwed up.  Which would you rather have, the GOP trying to move back to '94 or the Dems trying to move back to Lyndon Johnson and McGovern?

Next, momentum in clearly on the side of Republicans right now.   You can check the polling yourself at RCP or other polling sites, but most of the recent polling has been moving in the right direction.  Right now I am guessing that Republicans with have 51 or 52 seats in the senate and neither party will have more than a 5 seat majority in the House.

Finally, a few weeks ago I posted about what Rudy Giuliani would have to do to survive the primary.  One of my points was that he would have the be a vocal advocate of reforming the judiciary to its proper role.  Well over the last few days he has said that Scalia would have been his choice for chief justice, he has praised Alito and Roberts consistently, and in a pep talk article he actually mentioned appointing originalist judges (not just strict contructionists).  He is obviously pursuing this strategy aggresively.  How ironic would it be if a pro-choice President Giuliani appointed the 5th vote to overturn Roe v. Wade because he believes in federalism and original intent?  I guess we can only wait and see, but Giuliani is making some very smart moves right now. 
 
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Bush's IQ Likely Higher Than Kerry's

This is an extremely interesting study comparing the grades Bush and Kerry got on various officer aptitude tests measuring IQ.  Its conclusion is that there is no proof that Kerry is smarter than Bush and based on the evidence we have, it is more likely that Bush is smarter (although it does mention that Al Gore is a good bit smarter than Kerry or Bush).  Much has been made of Bush's C average at Yale, but Kerry did not have a much better GPA.  Furthermore, Bush actually did quite well in Business School.  Pres. Bush is not a genius, but he is by no means stupid.  It just makes liberals feel better to say every conservative is stupid.  So, next time you see some smug bumper sticker about how stupid Bush is, just remember, the idiot is driving the car, not the nation. 
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My First Time Voting!

Whohoo!  I voted today!  It was the first time I was allowed to vote in a general election.  I voted in Georgia's primary a few months ago, but this was the first time that voting for great conservative candidates was sweetened by getting to vote against liberals.  I got to reward Sonny Perdue for a solid, although unspectacular, first term in office, vote for Georgia's soon to be first Republican Lt. Governor since reconstruction, and Charlie Norwood--a conservative stalwart of the US House.

For all you cut and run conservatives out there, I waited for 19 years to get to vote, and now you are going to throw your vote away.  The people who filibustered Alito and Roberts, who voted against all the President's tax cuts, who never met a spending project they didn't like, who have consistenly opposed any type of pork barrel reform, who want to give amnesty to illegal aliens, who think we should give the rights of citizens to brutal terrorists, who would spend your money to fund abortions, who call our troops stupid and compare them to nazis and pol pot, who would love to defund the war in Iraq, who will impeach the President if they just get an excuse, who are filibustering John Bolten, who killed social security reform and then gloated about it, who oppose replacing our broken tax system with a pro-growth Fairtax, who hate America, freedom, and George W. Bush, those are the people you are voting through silence to put into office.  So get off you butt, quit whining and demanding perfection, quit giving me this blam! about the two parties being identical, and vote.  Not necessarily because your representative deserves to win, but because the Socialist-Democrat Party deserves to lose! 
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Kerry Disses Military; Dog Bites Man

Well, Kerry is at it again.  Not content to simply call our Vietnam vets war criminals, and say that our troops in Iraq are terrorizing women and children, he also thinks they're stupid.   If he didn't have such a long anti-military history, I would give him the benefit of the doubt that he was talking about Bush.  But, the statement is almost as distasteful if it did refer to Bush.  Besides, what an idiot, he voted for the war so he would be incriminating himself with his lousy joke anyway if it was referring to Bush.  Also, now he finally get to see what it feels like to have your statement taken out of context, a regular feeling for conservatives.  Whatever the case, Kerry should be ashamed of himself.  This is why the country knew that he was unfit for command.
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Those Evil Video Games

You have probably heard of the concern among many mothers groups about violent video games.  Well, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas took "bad" video games to the next level.  You could steal cars, beat people up, run from the cops, and do pretty much any virtual vice you felt like.  I think that is a lot worse than any gory shooter.  The point of gory shooters is to kill monsters.  The gratuitous gore is not good, but it is better than the glorified sin in Grand Theft Auto.  And, of course, I don't see anything wrong with a shooter with a good story that focuses on strategy instead of blood and guts.   
    Well, the makers of Grand Theft Auto have outdone themselves again.  They are coming out with a game called "Bully."  In the game, you get to relive your middle school glory days giving people intense wedgies, stealing their lunch money, and ruling the school.  Or if you weren't that kid, you can get virtual revenge for the atrocities committed on you in school.
    I pretty much just died laughing when I heard about the game.  Here is a game to teach kids (the major video game players) how to be bad kids.  And unlike GTA, which most people just see as fantasy, anyone can imagine doing the things in Bully.  Virtual deliquency for those to busy to do it in real life!  Well, it gets better.  Apparently, when taking breaks from terrorizing the school you can pursue love interests.  The catch is that you can pursue gay love interests as well as straight.  "Jimmy" can approach a tall, blond boy with some flowers, the other boy replies: "I'm hot. You're hot. Let's make out."  No, I'm not joking.  
    I just can't imagine how this is going to appeal to the average teenage guy.  I am now going to be watching with interest to see how this game does.  But really, if you don't know what games your kid is playing, find out.  The games aren't pong and mario anymore. 
 
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